Jimmy Sengenberger

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Battlefield CO: Advantage Republicans, Gardner Up

October 25, 2014 2014 Elections, Campaigns, Issues, Seng Center Blog 2014 elections, Battlefield Colorado, Colorado, Cory Gardner, Mark Udall, poll data

CoryGardnerMobilization trumps persuasion in Colorado in the final 11 days of the race!  National Review Online has declared that Colorado Senate nominee Cory Gardner has “pitched a perfect game.”

Today the respected Quinnipiac Poll has Gardner ahead of Udall 46-41% with 6% for Steven Shogan giving Gardner a 5% lead.  While Udall has remained at 41%, women have moved 4% towards Gardner (from Udall 49%-Gardner 40% to Udall 45%-Gardner 41%) since the last Quinnipiac Poll October 16.

The liberal Denver Post endorsed Gardner over Udall on October 10 with a blistering attack that Udall’s “obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.”  The Post ridiculed Udall’s attack that Gardner “seeks to outlaw birth control” when Gardner clearly advocates over-the-counter birth control without a prescription.  The whole article is worth a read.

Men support Gardner 51% to 38% representing a drop of 6% in the same Quinnipiac Poll.  While men still heavily favor Gardner, his overall appeal is more balanced and consistently displays around a 5-6 point lead.

These results were replicated in a USA Today/Suffolk Poll two days ago.  In that poll, Gardner is ahead by 8% well outside the margin of error (46% to 39%).  The results thus far on the all mail-in ballot show Gardner leading in ballots cast 50% to 42% with the gender gap erased.

As of this morning, Republicans have increased their early turnout lead 43.7% to 31.7% with 518,610 ballots cast.  In the two bellwether counties – Jefferson County and Arapahoe County – ballots cast reflect 40.8% to 32.2% and 43.7% to 32.4% respectively.  It is estimated that if Republicans win 20% of the Unaffiliated votes the race is won.

Results from heavily Democratic Denver and Boulder counties remain light so there is still a way to go.  It is true that these numbers are likely to change somewhat as Republicans typically vote earlier than Democrats although they are doing so by a wider margin than in recent elections and in increasing numbers as new tallies come in.

Nate Silver, the pollster with the most accurate predictions in recent election cycles, has Gardner favored to win by 80%.

In short, the only hope left for the Democrats in Colorado is their much vaunted ground game and – not to be discounted – massive fraud.  On cheating, independent conservatives have succeeded in exposing Democratic attitudes and some tactics.   It is not possible to fully protect against voter fraud but Republicans are organizing to prevent it where possible.

These Democratic tactics are unlikely to turn the tide because the Republicans have conducted a superior ground game this time compared to anything they have done in the past.  Paid teams are out daily all over the state racking up  7,000 to 10,000 door knocks per day.  These have about a 10% actual contact.

What is more – and this is crucial – daily data tells who has voted and who has not.  This enables the Republicans to concentrate on a smaller pool of “lazy” voters because they do not have to return to a voter whose vote is already recoreded.  The Democrats who must shake out their base with a broad brush are compelled to return again and again to the same voters.

Message Confusion

The glory days of Obama arriving for a rally at a campus to cheering crowds and then bussing voters to the booths in droves are long gone.  Obama doesn’t seem to get it.  He has made repeated statements that “his policies are on the ballot.”  He even acknowledges that candidates are doing what they “need to do” to distance themselves from him but that voters should support those Democrats “to continue my policies.”  This has infuriated and estranged Democratic candidates fighting for their political lives.  Why then does he persist in these tactics?

After all, many of these statements were made following final Senate candidate debates during which Democrats were distancing themselves from the Albatross-in-chief.  In Kentucky and New Hampshire, Grimes and Shaheen wouldn’t even fess up to having voted for Obama in their last debates.

You can take the community organizer out of the community but, as President, Obama, in his heart, remains the community organizer.  Obama and his inner circle have chosen again and again to abjure compromise and go to their base as their main strategy.  They have sought to divide and rule, polarize and politicize, even when it tactically hurts them.

They are tone deaf to the realities emerging before their eyes.  They have argued that Obamacare is turning out to be a success.  Yet, in Colorado, an additional 22,000 just learned they are losing their insurance with 200,000 estimated to lose their insurance in 2015.  335,000 have already lost their insurance in the state.

Colorado is the fourth highest in the nation to suffer large increases in premiums.  These increases will affect Bronze plans the most.  Bronze plans are typically subscribed to by poorer folks who will often drop their plans due to higher costs.

The cynical violent agitation of the Ferguson community over the killing of Michael Brown was always meant to mobilize the African-American base nationwide.  Outside agitators like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson shouted “No peace without Justice” before any inquiry was made but while rioting was spreading.  It was amazing to see Eric Holder show up and the FBI to be deployed.  It shows the shameless politicization of all events and, more sinisterly, a growing effort to replace local with federal authority.

Reliable Grand Jury leaks have revealed that the police officer was attacked by Brown in his car.  Brown’s blood was on the officer’s gun and in his patrol vehicle and on his clothes.  Powder residue reveals Brown was shot at close range when an apparent struggle for the gun took place.  It is not likely that charges will be filed, or if they are, that a conviction will be upheld.

Just as in the Trayvon Martin case, an effort here to demonstrate that America remains a racist society will fall flat on its face due to minority-initiated violence against the alleged perpetrator.  Sadly, this will not stop the gullible and those inclined to swallowing the whole of the grievance agenda from believing the worst and even rioting to make their point.  And it will not stop the Obama machine from playing the race card every chance it gets.

A Rising Tide of Fear

The sand castles and little shoreline dykes of the Democratic ground game are dissolving in the face of a rising tide.  The candidates have not spent a great deal of time discussing some of the big national and international issues in the news.  Gardner and other Republicans probably do not need to emphasize them.  They are being emblazoned in the national psyche by the weight of their importance.

The population knows or senses that each new incident has Obama’s fingerprints all over it.  The culpability, failure, spin and cover-up of Obama and his government agencies are an integral part of the narrative.  You might even argue that each new event is now driving yet another nail in the coffin of his competence and of the trustworthiness of government to get almost anything right.

Each day there seems to be a new Jihadist incident or a new Ebola patient.  The Jersey man killed by a Jihadist, the Atlanta grandmother beheaded by a Jihadist, the soldier at the Canadian Memorial gunned down, the Parliament building in Ottawa terrorized, the hatchet cop-killing Jihadist in New York – these incidents – individually and collectively are raising national anxiety and especially raising concerns among women for whom safety and security are priorities.

Yesterday in New York a new case of Ebola was announced.  A member of the honorable Doctors Without Borders turned himself over to a hospital with symptoms of Ebola.  The CDC policy of self-isolating for the 21-day incubation period was not followed by the doctor and reveals once again that nothing short of formal quarantines for returning workers and finally a travel ban from afflicted regions must be implemented.  As usual, Obama “leads from behind” which is to say he does not lead at all.


Rocky Mountain High

A blue Colorado may turn out to have been the late, great experiment of going from red to purple to blue based upon projections of demographic destiny and considerable chicanery. In this scenario, migrating liberal white elites would team up with minorities leading to a permanent shift in the electorate. If so, you can’t blame them too much for trying. Michelle Malkin’s new documentary will air this weekend on some of your channels in various local areas. The documentary tells the tale of the strategy:

It is now likely this blueprint will collapse or at least be slowed in Colorado.  Colorado was to be the blueprint for transforming a few more states in a similar fashion leading to a new permanent Democratic majority in the electoral college.  It is ironic that it appears many of these liberals left their states to avoid high taxes and dense populations.  Now they will advocate similar policies in their new home.  All of this has profound implications for the 2016 elections and for the future political face of the nation.

Next week I will make an attempt to address this issue in the broader context of progressivism versus conservatism. The conflict between the forces of Administrative statism and their conservative and libertarian opponents may be headed for a big showdown.